The India Meteorological Department has released its first long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon 2026, offering a detailed outlook on rainfall distribution, climatic drivers like ENSO, and the expected timeline of the rainy season across India.
According to the latest IMD update, India is most likely to receive “normal” monsoon rainfall in 2026, quantitatively estimated at around 100% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4%. The LPA, calculated over the 1971–2020 period, stands at approximately 87 cm. This forecast places the seasonal rainfall well within the “normal” category (96%–104% of LPA), reducing concerns of drought-like conditions this year.
The IMD has also highlighted the current status of large-scale ocean-atmospheric conditions, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which plays a crucial role in shaping India’s monsoon. For 2026, ENSO conditions are expected to remain neutral during the monsoon months (June to September). This is a positive signal, as neutral ENSO typically supports stable and evenly distributed rainfall across the country, unlike El Niño years that often suppress rainfall.
In addition to ENSO, the IMD is closely monitoring other climatic factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Eurasian snow cover, both of which can influence monsoon intensity and distribution. As of now, these indicators are not showing adverse signals, further strengthening the likelihood of a normal monsoon season.
Regarding the timeline of the monsoon, the IMD maintains that the southwest monsoon is expected to set in over Kerala around its normal onset date of June 1, with a gradual northward progression covering the entire country by mid-July. Pre-monsoon activity, including thunderstorms and localized rainfall, has already begun in parts of eastern and southern India, indicating the early stages of seasonal transition.
However, the IMD cautions that while the overall seasonal rainfall may remain normal, regional and temporal variations are always possible. Some areas could experience above-normal rainfall, while others may face short dry spells or intense rainfall events within short durations.
In summary, the IMD’s Monsoon 2026 forecast presents a balanced and optimistic outlook, with normal rainfall expected, neutral ENSO conditions supporting stability, and a timely onset likely. For agriculture, water resources, and the broader economy, this forecast provides a strong foundation, although close monitoring of regional patterns will remain essential as the season progresses.
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